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Geopolitics
How will the latest developments in geopolitics drive the EU-US relationship?
Watch Now: Geopolitics
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Question
Crowd Forecast
Will the U.S. Congress pass an economic and/or a military aid package to support Ukraine that the U.S. President then signs into law by July 19, 2025?
Closing
Jul 19, 2025 04:01AM UTC
·
10
·
10
8%
Chance
Will U.S. President Joe Biden lift restrictions on Ukraine’s ability to use long-range U.S. weapons systems to conduct strikes into Russian territory by January 19, 2025?
Closing
Jan 20, 2025 05:01AM UTC
·
6
·
6
22%
Chance
Will Russia control more than 45,000 square miles (116,000 square kilometers) of Ukraine by July 31, 2025?
Closing
Aug 01, 2025 04:01AM UTC
·
16
·
24
37%
Chance
Will the Baltic states decouple from the Russian power grid by Feb 28 2025?
Closing
Mar 01, 2025 05:01AM UTC
·
13
·
38
92%
Chance
Will China blockade and/or invade Taiwan in the next six months?
Closing
Jan 01, 2025 05:01AM UTC
·
19
·
59
1%
Chance
Will Serbia and Kosovo engage in a lethal armed conflict in the next 6 months?
Closing
Jan 01, 2025 05:01AM UTC
·
17
·
31
3%
Chance
Will Russian control of Ukrainian territory decrease in 2024?
Closing
Jan 01, 2025 05:01AM UTC
·
14
·
41
8%
Chance
How many NATO member states will meet the 2% defense spending target in 2024?
Closing
Jan 01, 2025 05:01AM UTC
·
11
·
26
Will the next EU Commission include a dedicated Commissioner focused on defense?
Closing
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
·
26
·
77
94%
Chance
Will an EU Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP) decision be reached through the process of Qualified Majority Voting (QMV) by December 31st, 2025?
Closing
Dec 31, 2025 05:00AM UTC
·
49
·
61
45%
Chance
1
2
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