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Geopolitics

How will the latest developments in geopolitics drive the EU-US relationship?

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Crowd Forecast

Will the percentage of arms imported by European NATO member states from the United States fall below 60% by December 31, 2025?

Closing Jan 01, 2026 04:59AM UTC · 43 · 43

40%

Chance

Will the United States announce that it will reduce the number of troops stationed in European NATO member states by 15,000 or more by December 31, 2025?

Closing Jan 01, 2026 05:01AM UTC · 22 · 27

42%

Chance

How many Starlink satellites will be in orbit on Dec. 31, 2025?

Closing Jan 01, 2026 05:01AM UTC · 34 · 57

Will the U.S. Congress pass an economic and/or a military aid package to support Ukraine that the U.S. President then signs into law by July 19, 2025?

Closing Jul 19, 2025 04:01AM UTC · 48 · 107

11%

Chance

Will Russia control more than 45,000 square miles (116,000 square kilometers) of Ukraine by July 31, 2025?

Closing Aug 01, 2025 04:01AM UTC · 27 · 64

17%

Chance

Will an EU Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP) decision be reached through the process of Qualified Majority Voting (QMV) by December 31st, 2025?

Closing Dec 31, 2025 05:00AM UTC · 57 · 95

20%

Chance

Will Lula da Silva complete his current term as President of Brazil?

Closing Jan 01, 2027 05:01AM UTC · 38 · 180

96%

Chance