Will the US withdraw its rotational forces from Lithuania by December 31, 2026?
Started
Oct 15, 2025 07:48PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2027 05:01AM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2027 05:01AM UTC
Challenges
Seasons
Context:
Since 2014, the United States has maintained a limited military presence in Lithuania. These forces, generally numbering between 1,000 and 2,000 troops, are deployed on a rotational basis, training with Lithuanian counterparts for periods averaging approximately nine months per rotation. After five years of sporadic rotations, the program became more regularized in 2019, when heavy battalions began deploying to the Baltic nation on a consistent basis.
U.S. operations in Lithuania are a component of the broader Operation Atlantic Resolve, a multinational military operation conceived in the wake of Russia’s 2014 invasion of Crimea. In an effort to deter further Russian aggression along NATO’s Eastern Flank, the U.S. – alongside several other nations – has consistently rotated forces throughout Central and Eastern Europe. These operations have been welcomed by many regional states, including Lithuania, which has signalled that it is open to hosting additional U.S. troops.
However, the future of this program is increasingly uncertain. Since returning to office, Donald Trump has routinely questioned the value of stationing U.S. forces in Europe. Lithuania in particular has emerged as a focus following the deaths of four American soldiers in a training accident in March 2025. In an effort to address the president’s concerns, the Pentagon has stated that it would be reviewing its force posture in Central and Eastern Europe, a move that could reportedly result in the withdrawal of over 10,000 troops from the region. While Lithuanian officials have thus far received no indication of an imminent withdrawal, the long-term future of the rotations is unclear.
Resolution Criteria:
This question will resolve positively if a major new outlet reports that the United States has withdrawn all rotational forces from Lithuania by December 31, 2026.
Further Reading: