On March 23, newly appointed Prime Minister Mark Carney requested that Governor General Mary Simon dissolve parliament, triggering an early election to be held on April 28. 

The election comes amidst a turbulent period for Canadian politics. In January, after nearly a decade in power, former Prime Minster Justin Trudeau’s Liberals were polling near the single-digits with the Official Opposition Conservative Party, led by Pierre Poilievre, poised to win a majority government. 

In February, polls began to change dramatically as US President Trump’s aggressive tariff and takeover threats precipitated a surge in Canadian nationalism and a rally-around-the-flag effect. Combined with Trudeau’s resignation, the Liberal Party and its new leader were propelled from a distant third place back to first with a strong possibility of winning a majority government. 

While the Liberals lead in the polls entering the election period, the recent volatility suggests that a wide range of outcomes are possible. A continued decline of Canada’s third largest national party, the left-wing New Democratic Party, could guarantee a Liberal victory, while their resurgence would aid the Conservatives by peeling votes away from the Liberals. Canadians are also just getting to know Liberal leader Mark Carney, a former governor of the Bank of Canada and Bank of England before becoming an economic advisor to Justin Trudeau’s Liberals, so opinions of him as leader may change in the weeks to come. 

This question will be resolved using official Elections Canada results and major media reporting, as needed. 

For the purposes of the resolution criteria, a majority government is one in which the governing party wins a majority of the seats in parliament. In a minority government, the governing party has less than 50% of the seats and forms a government either on its own, through a governing coalition, or some other arrangement.

If a coalition government is formed, this question will be resolved based on which party is the largest member of the coalition, regardless of the number of seats won. (Example scenario: The Conservatives win more seats than the Liberals but neither party wins a majority. As Mark Carney is the sitting Prime Minister, he would get the first opportunity to form a government, which he might do in coalition with the NDP. In this scenario, the question would resolve as “Liberal minority government” despite the Conservatives winning the most seats).