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Democracy

Closing
Feb 01, 2024 04:59AM UTC (10 months)
How can the US and EU reverse the democratic decline at home and abroad?

Watch Now: Democracy

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Will President Emmanuel Macron retract his new pension reform as a result of the ongoing protests and strikes in France?

7%

Chance
25 Forecasters • 27 Forecasts
Started Mar 23, 2023 07:03PM UTC
Closing Apr 30, 2023 04:00AM UTC

Which party will win the most seats in the Finnish general election on April 2, 2023?

22 Forecasters • 26 Forecasts
Started Mar 09, 2023 02:00PM UTC
Closing Apr 02, 2023 04:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
National Coalition
40%
Social Democratic Party of Finland
33%
Finns Party
19%
Centre Party of Finland
3%
Green League
2%
Left Alliance
2%
Other
1%

Will there be an attempted coup d’état in Moldova by May 1, 2023?

12%

Chance
38 Forecasters • 49 Forecasts
Started Feb 23, 2023 02:00PM UTC
Closing May 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC

Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan be re-elected as President of Türkiye following the presidential election on May 14, 2023?

67%

Chance
31 Forecasters • 49 Forecasts
Started Feb 15, 2023 07:52PM UTC
Closing May 14, 2023 04:00AM UTC

When will President Joe Biden announce his 2024 reelection bid?

44 Forecasters • 116 Forecasts
Started Feb 06, 2023 05:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2024 05:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Before February 13, 2023
0%
Between February 13 and February 28, 2023
1%
Between March 1 and March 17, 2023
11%
On or after March 18, 2023
73%
Biden will not run for reelection in 2024
15%

Will Kevin McCarthy cease to be the Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives by March 31, 2023?

3%

Chance
46 Forecasters • 97 Forecasts
Started Jan 23, 2023 05:00AM UTC
Closing Apr 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC

Will President Biden issue more than 120 new Executive Orders before January 20, 2024?

72%

Chance
23 Forecasters • 58 Forecasts
Started Oct 28, 2022 01:47PM UTC
Closing Jan 20, 2024 05:00AM UTC

Will more American adults under 30 trust information from social media than national news outlets in 2023?

46%

Chance
19 Forecasters • 44 Forecasts
Started Oct 27, 2022 10:00PM UTC
Closing Dec 31, 2023 05:00AM UTC

Will Vladimir Putin cease to be president of the Russian Federation before August 31, 2023?

26%

Chance
67 Forecasters • 134 Forecasts
Started Sep 22, 2022 02:14PM UTC
Closing Sep 01, 2023 04:01AM UTC
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