RANGE Forecasting

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Astropolitics (5) only
BRICS 2023 (1) only
Democracy (2) only
Geopolitics (5) only
Indo-Pacific (2) only
Trade & Economics (4) only

Crowd Forecast

Will Ali Khamenei remain in his position as Supreme Leader of Iran as of June 30, 2026?

Closing Feb 13, 2026 07:00PM UTC · 3 · 3

81%

Chance

Will the United States have 1000 or more active-duty troops stationed in Greenland by June 30, 2026?

Closing Feb 13, 2026 06:50PM UTC · 7 · 7

41%

Chance

Will the US withdraw its rotational forces from Lithuania by December 31, 2026?

Closing Jan 01, 2027 05:01AM UTC · 30 · 46

17%

Chance

Will developed countries deliver USD $200 billion or more in financing to developing countries for climate action between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026?

Closing Jan 01, 2027 07:01AM UTC · 105 · 122

15%

Chance

Will the United States lower tariffs on imports of European steel and aluminum to 25% or less on or before Dec. 31, 2026?

Closing Jan 01, 2027 05:01AM UTC · 41 · 65

10%

Chance

Will Germany or Italy develop sovereign launch capabilities by December 31, 2035?

Closing Jan 01, 2036 05:01AM UTC · 9 · 23

51%

Chance

Will the Tiangong space station be the only habitable space station in low Earth orbit by December 31, 2031?

Closing Jan 01, 2032 05:01AM UTC · 5 · 13

13%

Chance

Will one or more EU member states announce that they will be holding negotiations with the United States on waivers to International Traffic in Arms Regulations (ITAR) by December 31, 2026?

Closing Jan 01, 2027 05:01AM UTC · 6 · 17

16%

Chance

Will two or more additional countries be approved to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) by December 31, 2026?

Closing Jan 01, 2027 07:01AM UTC · 11 · 27

14%

Chance

Will a ban procedure against the Alternative for Germany (AfD) be initiated by December 31, 2026?

Closing Jan 01, 2027 05:01AM UTC · 19 · 47

5%

Chance