For decades, the European Union has relied heavily on the United States for its space launch capabilities. This dependence has only grown in recent years, as U.S. firms like SpaceX have come to dominate the launch market. For many European states, this dynamic has grown increasingly concerning, particularly as European perceptions of U.S. reliability have plummeted in response to the policies of the Trump administration. Accordingly, the European Union has begun taking steps to develop its domestic space ecosystem.

However, reducing dependence on the U.S. is unlikely to be a simple process. After decades of transatlantic cooperation, the European space industry is deeply reliant on U.S.-developed technologies for a wide variety of functions. Many of these technologies are considered dual-use, meaning that they have both civilian and military applications. As such, they fall under the purview of U.S. International Traffic in Arms Regulations (ITAR), a highly restrictive set of State Department export controls designed to protect military technologies from falling into foreign hands. Since 1999, ITAR has covered all exports

related to satellites and relevant launch technologies.

For European states interested in expanding their domestic space industries, ITAR will be a difficult obstacle to overcome. Historically, the U.S. has shown little flexibility in enforcing the regulations, imposing harsh penalties on non-compliant companies. However, the government has proven  somewhat less rigid when it comes to space technologies. In 2024, the State Department announced that it would provide partial exemptions to Australia and the United Kingdom, reducing restrictions on space-related technologies. If European states can secure similar waivers, it would be highly beneficial for their domestic space ecosystems.

This question will resolve positively if a major news outlet reports that one or more EU member states will be holding negotiations with the United States on waivers to International Traffic in Arms Regulations (ITAR) by December 31, 2026.