Will the Republican party control the United States House of Representatives and the Senate following the elections on November 8, 2022?

Started May 27, 2022 01:00PM UTC
Closed Nov 09, 2022 05:00AM UTC


On November 8, 2022, American voters will go to the polls to cast their ballots in the nation's mid-term elections.  All 435 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives and 34 in the Senate will be decided by the electorate.   Democrats currently control the House of Representatives by a margin of 221-208 (with 6 seats vacant).  In the Senate, Democrats hold 48 seats and Republicans hold 50 seats.  The two independent Senators caucus with the Democrats to give them control of the chamber.

Resolution Criteria

This question will resolve positively if the Republican Party is the projected winner of a majority of congressional districts and senate seats according to at least two of the following networks that make race calls: ABC News, CBS News, NBC News, CNN, Fox News, Decision Desk HQ, Associated Press, Reuters, NY Times.

If there are conflicting race calls, we will wait for the FEC to resolve this question.

Further Reading

The 2022 Midterm Congressional Elections by the Numbers

Real Clear Politics - Latest Polls

Will Republicans Win Back the House? History Says Yes.

These 7 States Will Decide Control of the Senate

Resolution Notes

The Democrats kept control of the U.S. Senate in the 2022 midterm elections, according to the Associated Press.


Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 56.55%
No 43.45%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 45
Average for questions older than 6 months: 20
Number of Forecasts 90
Average for questions older than 6 months: 46
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score


Consensus Trend

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