Will there be an attempted coup d’état in Moldova by May 1, 2023?

Started Feb 23, 2023 02:00PM UTC
Closed May 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC

Context
Moldova’s pro-EU government resigned on February 10 after 18 months in power following a series of economic and political crises largely associated with the war in Ukraine. Moldova, already one of the poorest countries in Europe, has been facing inflation, high energy prices, refugee influx and Russian aggression. In 2022, Russia suddenly reduced its gas supplies to Moldova, which relies 100% on Russian gas and has been putting pressure on the country as they move closer to joining the EU. Moldova was granted EU candidate status in June of 2022, together with Ukraine.

The news of Prime Minister Natalia Gavrilita’s resignation came hours after Russian missiles flew over Moldovan airspace headed for Ukraine. Ukrainian President, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, told EU leaders during the European Council summit on February 9 that Ukraine had intercepted Russian plans to “destroy” Moldova, which Moldovan intelligence services later confirmed.

On February 13, Moldova’s President, Maia Sandu, said in a press conference that Russia wants to stage a coup d’état in the country and called for heightened security measures. She mentioned in her remarks that Russia’s plan included sabotage and military trained people disguised as civilians sent to carry out attacks on government buildings and take hostages. She also said Russia is sending citizens from Russia, Montenegro, Belarus and Serbia to spark protests in Moldova in an attempt to install an illegitimate government controlled by the Russian Federation to stop the EU integration process. The allegations have already been denied by the Russian foreign ministry.

Following the government’s resignation, President Sandu nominated her former defense advisor, Dorin Recean, as the next Prime Minister. The new pro-EU government was approved by Moldova’s parliament on February 16.

Resolution Criteria
This question will resolve positively if AP or Reuters report that there has been an attempted coup d’état in Moldova on or before May 1, 2023.

Further Reading
Resolution Notes

Neither AP nor Reuters reported an attempted coup d'etat taking place in Moldova

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 4.57%
No 95.43%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 40
Average for questions older than 6 months: 20
Number of Forecasts 88
Average for questions older than 6 months: 45
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.016
2.
-0.016
3.
-0.015
4.
-0.015
5.
-0.014

Consensus Trend

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