Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan be re-elected as President of Türkiye following the presidential election on May 28, 2023?

Started Feb 15, 2023 07:52PM UTC
Closed May 28, 2023 04:00AM UTC
Challenges
Seasons

Context
Türkiye is due to hold parliamentary and presidential elections on May 14, 2023. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is running as the joint candidate of the ruling coalition of his Islamic Justice and Development Party (AK Party) and the far right-wing Nationalist Movement Party (MHP). He has ruled Türkiye for 20 years, first as prime minister since 2003, then as president since 2014 after the parliamentary system was converted into a presidential system.

For the first time in twenty years, Erdoğan is at risk of losing the presidency, his AKP-Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) majority in parliament, or both. To prevent this, he has taken a number of measures to influence the elections in his favor. These include amending the electoral law in favor of the incumbent coalition, taking legal action against the opposition, predominantly the Kurdish People's Democratic Party (HDP) or individuals, such as Istanbul's mayor Ekrim İmamoğlu. In spite of his disproportionate influence, polls suggest that Erdoğan could lose the presidency if the opposition unites behind the most promising candidate, and the election is more or less clean. If Erdoğan does not win in the first round of the presidential election outright, a runoff will be held two weeks later. 

The recent earthquake in Türkiye and Syria further complicates the election as a rising death toll puts pressure on Erdoğan. AKP officials have said this is not time to talk about elections and there must be some delay due to the state of emergency in the country.

Update: Preliminary results at the end of election day on May 14 showed neither Recep Tayyip Erdoğan nor his main rival won a majority of votes needed to win. Türkiye will hold a runoff election on May 28.

Resolution Criteria
This question will be resolved when the election results are officially announced by the Turkish Supreme Election Council following the runoff election on May 28.

Further Reading

Question clarification
Issued on 05/17/23 04:24pm
This question will be resolved based on the final election results officially announced by the Turkish Supreme Election Council following the runoff election currently scheduled for May 28, 2023.
Resolution Notes

Recep Tayyip Erdoğan was re-elected as President of Türkiye following the second round of voting in the presidential election on May 28, 2023, according to the Turkish Supreme Election Council.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 75.68%
No 24.32%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 40
Average for questions older than 6 months: 20
Number of Forecasts 93
Average for questions older than 6 months: 46
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.152025
2.
-0.138888
3.
-0.131045
4.
-0.118364
5.
-0.117712

Consensus Trend

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