Enter the RANGE College Tournament: January 26 - March 27, 2026
 

Will the EU-UK "reset'" agreement enter into force by December 31, 2025?

Started Jun 26, 2025 01:00PM UTC
Closed Dec 31, 2025 05:00AM UTC
Challenges
Seasons

Context:

Since the 2016 Brexit referendum, the United Kingdom and the European Union have struggled to resolve issues related to trade and economics, fishing rights, migration and security. In recent months, however, both entities have worked to repair the relationship.

In May 2025, British Prime Minster Keir Starmer and EU Commissioner Ursula von der Leyen agreed to the fundamental principles of a “reset” agreement, which, among much else, seeks to repair the trading relationship between the UK and EU. Notably, the agreement reduces trade barriers for British food products entering the EU, including border checks on meat and animal products. In turn, the UK has extended the rights of Europeans to fish in British waters. The agreement will also ease travel somewhat for British citizens entering the EU. 

However, Starmer faces significant hurdles in obtaining parliamentary approval for the agreement. His favorability ratings and those of the Labour Party have fallen since last year’s election, making such a move politically risky. Additionally, the agreement could anger parties that oppose further cooperation with the EU, such as Reform UK. Nigel Farage, one of the chief advocates of Brexit, accused Starmer of returning the UK to the control and direction of the EU. Conservative Party Leader Kemi Badenoch was also highly critical of the agreement. Farage and his supporters could capitalize on persistent anti-EU sentiment to deter Parliament from approving the agreement. 

Resolution Criteria:

This question will resolve positively if a major news outlet reports that the EU-UK “reset” agreement has entered into force by December 31, 2025.

Further Reading:
UK-EU Summit Kick-Starts Negotiations to “Reset” Relations | DLA Piper
UK and EU Strike Post-Brexit ‘Reset’ Deal | The New York Times
The Reset Deal has Opened a New Chapter in UK-EU Relations | LSE Blogs
PM Secures New Agreement with EU to Benefit British People | GOV.UK

Resolution Notes

The EU-UK "reset" agreement did not fully enter into force by Dec. 31, 2025

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 21%
No 79%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 16
Average for questions older than 6 months: 20
Number of Forecasts 46
Average for questions older than 6 months: 47
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.846382
2.
-0.637509
3.
-0.521036
4.
-0.151559
5.
-0.127407

Consensus Trend

Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username