Will Serbia and Kosovo engage in a lethal armed conflict in the next 6 months?
Started
Apr 16, 2024 06:49PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2025 05:01AM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2025 05:01AM UTC
Context:
After a shootout in Kosovo between ethnic Serbian gunmen and Kosovan forces in September 2023, Serbia deployed thousands of military troops to the Kosovan border. More recently, the United States has made an effort to improve relations between the two countries, but armed conflict remains a possibility.
Resolution Criteria:
This question will resolve positively if, according to major news reporting, the militaries of Serbia and Kosovo engage in an armed conflict that results in at least one military fatality.
Further Reading:
Resolution Notes
There was no military engagement between Kosovo and Serbia resulting in a fatality within the forecasting period.
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | |
| No | 99% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 19 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 20 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 37 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 46 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |