Will the Bharatiya Janata Party maintain a majority of seats in India’s 2024 parliamentary election?

Started Aug 02, 2023 02:44PM UTC
Closing May 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC

Context

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has been the ruling political party in India since 2014 under the leadership of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Following the Lok Sabha elections in 2019, the BJP won 303 seats and received 37.4% of the vote, the highest vote share by a political party since the 1989 elections. The country will again hold general elections in the spring of 2024. Though analysts predict Modi will win re-election, a BJP absolute majority is not a foregone conclusion.


Resolution Criteria
This question will resolve positively if AP or Reuters reports that the Bharatiya Janata Party (not the coalition) has maintained a majority of seats in the Lok Sabha following the 2024 parliamentary elections in India.

Further Reading

Question clarification
Issued on 02/12/24 09:54pm
A majority in this case is 272 seats (there are 543 seats total). The Bharatiya Janata Party itself (not in combination with its coalition) must win at least 272 seats for the question to resolve positively.
Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours Change in last week Change in last month
Yes 86.44% 0% +1.44% +7.01%
No 13.56% 0% -1.44% -7.01%

Sign up or sign in to forecast!

Sign Up Sign In
Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username