Will South Africa withdraw from the International Criminal Court prior to the August 2023 BRICS Summit?

Started Jun 21, 2023 04:00AM UTC
Closed Aug 22, 2023 04:00AM UTC
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Context

South Africa is scheduled to host the upcoming annual BRICS summit in August 2023. The country is the youngest member of the BRICS bloc and has good relations with Russia, not condemning Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Russian President Vladimir Putin was formally invited to the Summit in January 2023 but his physical attendance will not come without consequences. The International Criminal Court (ICC) issued an arrest warrant for Putin in March 2023 and South Africa is legally obliged to arrest Putin due to its ratification of the ICC’s founding Rome statute, binding members to assist with ICC prosecution. While South Africa has issued diplomatic immunity to all leaders attending the BRICS summit, such national immunities cannot override the ICC’s international arrest warrant. Internal discussions about the ICC have raised confusion as government officials announced a withdrawal from the treaty only to retract the statement afterward. This does not mark the first time that a possible withdrawal is in question as similar persecution obligations have been at the center of a diplomatic and legal discussion in 2015 when Sudanese President al-Bashir visited Pretoria for an international summit and was not arrested despite having an ICC warrant.

Resolution Criteria

The question will resolve positively if South Africa submits a letter of withdrawal from the ICC prior to the beginning of the 2023 BRICS Summit, according to major news reporting.

Further Reading 

South Africa At Crossroads As It Attempts To Navigate Hosting BRICS Summit Amid Global Tensions

South Africa to try to withdraw from ICC again - Ramaphosa

South Africa’s Putin Problem

Resolution Notes

South Africa did not withdraw from the International Criminal Court prior to the 2023 BRICS Summit.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 0.73%
No 99.27%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 21
Average for questions older than 6 months: 20
Number of Forecasts 38
Average for questions older than 6 months: 46
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.004479
2.
-0.003753
3.
-0.001656
4.
-0.001634
5.
-0.001576

Consensus Trend

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