Will President Emmanuel Macron retract his new pension reform as a result of the ongoing protests and strikes in France?

Started Mar 23, 2023 07:03PM UTC
Closed Apr 30, 2023 04:00AM UTC
Challenges
Seasons

Context
In January of 2023, President Emmanuel Macron proposed a plan to gradually raise France’s legal age of retirement from 62 to 64 by 2030 in an effort to cut pension costs. Macron argues that France’s pension system will run a deficit in the coming years and that France is merely aligning itself with other European countries with a pension age even higher than the proposed 64.

The reform is widely unpopular among voters and labor unions, some of which promised strikes if the reform were to be approved. On March 12, amid protests across the country, the French Senate approved Macron’s plan by a vote of 195 to 112. Macron later invoked Article 49.3 of the French Constitution to allow the government to pass the bill without a National Assembly vote due to the lack of political support. However, the same article allows lawmakers to file a no-confidence vote against the government within 24 hours. On March 20, Macron survived two no-confidence votes, paving the way for the pension reform to become law and enacted by September of this year.

French citizens are angered by the way the law was passed and Macron’s lack of understanding for protesters’ concerns. As of March 23, 200 protests have been reported across France and hundreds of thousands of people are gathering in Paris, especially after Macron’s remarks on March 22 refusing to retract the reform. The country is also experiencing widespread strikes and major transportation disruptions with protesters blocking roads and one of the terminals at Charles de Gaulle airport.

Resolution Criteria
This question will resolve positively if and when AP or Reuters reports that President Emmanuel Macron has retracted his new pension reform as a result of ongoing protests and strikes in France.

Further Reading

Resolution Notes

Neither AP nor Reuters reported a retraction of France's pension reform by Macron

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 3.63%
No 96.37%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 39
Average for questions older than 6 months: 20
Number of Forecasts 63
Average for questions older than 6 months: 45
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.002371
2.
-0.002371
3.
-0.002371
4.
-0.002239
5.
-0.002239

Consensus Trend

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