Will Kevin McCarthy cease to be the Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives by March 31, 2023?

Started Jan 23, 2023 05:00AM UTC
Closed Apr 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC
Challenges
Seasons

Context
On January 7, 2023, Republican Congressman Kevin McCarthy of California was elected Speaker of the House of Representatives, after 15 rounds of voting. On the first 14 ballots, McCarthy was unable to secure the requisite majority due to several members of the House Freedom Caucus who refused to support his candidacy. Following days of horse-trading behind the scenes, McCarthy reportedly offered a variety of concessions including committee seats, commitments related to the debt ceiling and spending, and allowing a single member of the Republican caucus to initiate a House vote to remove the speaker (also known as a “motion to vacate”).
As a result, the current House rules allow any member to call for a vote to oust the speaker at any time. If the motion receives support of 218 members, Speaker McCarthy would be removed. The current composition of Congress is 222 Republicans and 212 Democrats, so a handful of disgruntled Republicans joining the full Democratic caucus in a vote to remove the Speaker would be successful.

Resolution Criteria
This question will resolve positively if the Associated Press reports that the House has removed Speaker McCarthy via a successful motion to vacate or McCarthy ceases to be the Speaker for any other reason on or before March 31, 2023.

Further Reading
Resolution Notes

Kevin McCarthy remained Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives through March 31, 2023.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 5.24%
No 94.76%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 47
Average for questions older than 6 months: 17
Number of Forecasts 105
Average for questions older than 6 months: 42
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

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-0.005
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-0.005
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-0.004
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-0.004
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-0.004

Consensus Trend

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