What percentage of Congressional and state-level election results will be contested?

Started Oct 28, 2022 06:38PM UTC
Closed Nov 09, 2022 05:00AM UTC
Challenges
Seasons

Context 

The 2000 US Presidential election was the most famous example of a disputed result, that was legally challenged and ultimately decided by the Supreme Court.  During the 2020 US Presidential election campaign, President Donald Trump repeatedly cast doubt on the security and integrity of American elections without evidence to support that position. In the aftermath of that election, Trump and his supporters refused to recognize the results of the election, and continued to challenge the outcome in the courts, in the media and in public appearances. This effort to reverse the results of the 2020 election culminated in the attack on the United States Capitol on January 6, 2021, to prevent the peaceful transfer of power for the first time in American history.


In the run up to the 2022 midterm election, election deniers (i.e. those who refuse to accept the results of the 2020 election) have spread across the public and political classes in the United States. In fact, a candidate's vocal denial of the 2022 results is seen as a prerequisite for support in today's Republican Party. Estimates indicate that approximately 300 election denial candidates will be on the ballot on November 8th.

The ascension of election deniers into positions of power don't just have the potential to impact the results of future elections, but the state of American democracy going forward.

Resolution Criteria
This question will be resolved using RANGE’s analysis of the public statements made by each of the candidates in elections for the U.S. House of Representatives, U.S. Senate, and governorships across the United States.

Further Reading
Resolution Notes

Based on Bertelsmann analysis, we have concluded that the number of officially contested election results in the 2022 midterms is less than 10% of the total elections.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
More than 50% 4%
25%-50% 30%
10%-25% 6%
Less than 10% 61%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 6
Average for questions older than 6 months: 17
Number of Forecasts 6
Average for questions older than 6 months: 42
Accuracy
There are not enough forecasters in this question to generate an accuracy profile.

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.017
3.
-0.002
4.
0.008
5.
0.427

Consensus Trend

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