What percentage of Congressional and state-level election results will be contested?
Closed Nov 09, 2022 05:00AM UTC
Context
The 2000 US Presidential election was the most famous example of a disputed result, that was legally challenged and ultimately decided by the Supreme Court. During the 2020 US Presidential election campaign, President Donald Trump repeatedly cast doubt on the security and integrity of American elections without evidence to support that position. In the aftermath of that election, Trump and his supporters refused to recognize the results of the election, and continued to challenge the outcome in the courts, in the media and in public appearances. This effort to reverse the results of the 2020 election culminated in the attack on the United States Capitol on January 6, 2021, to prevent the peaceful transfer of power for the first time in American history.
Based on Bertelsmann analysis, we have concluded that the number of officially contested election results in the 2022 midterms is less than 10% of the total elections.
Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
---|---|---|
More than 50% | 4% | |
25%-50% | 30% | |
10%-25% | 6% | |
Less than 10% | 61% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
Participation Level | |
---|---|
Number of Forecasters | 6 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 17 | |
Number of Forecasts | 6 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 42 |
Accuracy | |
---|---|
There are not enough forecasters in this question to generate an accuracy profile. |