Will the state of the economy be the most important factor for voters in the 2022 midterm elections?
Closed Nov 09, 2022 05:00AM UTC
Context
On November 8, 2022, American voters will go to the polls in the midterm elections. The results will determine who will lead at the local, state and federal levels. During this election cycle, highly contentious issues such as election integrity, critical race theory and abortion bans have played a prominent role in many campaigns, alongside the more traditional "bread and butter" issues like gas prices and the state of the economy.
Following the decision by the Supreme Court in June 2022 to overturn the landmark abortion case Roe v. Wade, the Democratic Party received a spike in public supports as women's rights were eroded in states across the country. But the spike in gas prices and inflation quickly shift the public debate and campaign strategy to focus on the economy, which is a perennial concern in American elections.
Resolution Criteria
This question will be resolved positively if the exit poll data provided by NBC news indicates that the economy, inflation, or another related issue was the leading issue driving voter decisions in the midterm elections.
Further Reading
Exit Polls - 2020 US Presidential ElectionMidterm Election Issue Briefing - Axios
US Inflation Still Running Hot - Market Watch
Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
---|---|---|
Yes | 88.80% | |
No | 11.20% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
Participation Level | |
---|---|
Number of Forecasters | 13 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 20 | |
Number of Forecasts | 14 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 45 |
Accuracy | |
---|---|
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |