Context

On November 8, 2022, American voters will go to the polls to elect all 435 members of the House of Representatives and one-third of the Senate.  Key races in traditional swing states (i.e. states that could deliver a victory for either party) will ultimately determine whether Republicans or Democrats will control the legislative branch.  In presidential elections, statewide results are often decided by suburban voters, since their party allegiance isn't as firmly entrenched as voters in urban and rural areas.  As a result, candidates spend a disproportionate amount of time and money wooing these elusive voters in hopes of swaying them to their side on election day.  From the state of the economy and banning abortions, to preserving democracy and teaching American history, wedge issues will define the battleground upon which the suburbs will be fought and ultimately won.

During the midterm elections, several Senate races are being contested in swing states including Pennsylvania, Georgia and Ohio, and the levers of power in Washington hang in the balance.  The candidates who resonate best with suburban voters will likely carry the day, and with them, control of the Senate.

Resolution Criteria

This question will resolve positively if more than 50% of all the voters in suburban counties listed in this sheet combined cast ballots in favor of Republican Senate candidates, according to election results published online by the Associated Press.

Further Reading