Will Vladimir Putin cease to be president of the Russian Federation before August 31, 2023?

Started Sep 22, 2022 02:14PM UTC
Closed Aug 31, 2023 04:00AM UTC
Challenges
Seasons

Context
Following Russia's decision to launch a full-scale military invasion of Ukraine in February of 2022, experts have questioned President Vladimir Putin's plans for the next few years. In May, Sir Richard Dearlove, the former head of the British Secret Intelligence Service, predicted that Vladimir Putin will no longer serve as president of Russia by 2023 due to health issues. He also predicted that the Russian regime would collapse within 12-18 months of the invasion of Ukraine due to the U.S. and Europe's sanctions, the burden the conflict places on resources, and Russia's military performance.

Resolution Criteria
The question will resolve positively if at least two major news outlets report that Vladimir Putin is no longer the president of the Russian Federation on or before August 31, 2023.

Further Reading
Putin will be in a sanatorium and out of power by 2023, a former British intelligence chief predicts

Putin Will 'Be Gone by 2023,' Likely to Sanatorium, Predicts Ex-MI6 Chief

How long can Putin be president?

Carnegie Endowment: Russia Faces Three Pivotal Moments in 2023

Russia-Ukraine war latest: what we know on day 183 of the invasion

Resolution Notes

As of August 31, 2023, Vladimir Putin remains President of Russia.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 12.60%
No 87.40%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 95
Average for questions older than 6 months: 20
Number of Forecasts 267
Average for questions older than 6 months: 45
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.09
2.
-0.078
3.
-0.077
4.
-0.07
5.
-0.064

Consensus Trend

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