Who will be the United Kingdom's next Prime Minister?

Started Jul 20, 2022 03:27PM UTC
Closed Sep 05, 2022 03:59AM UTC
Challenges
Seasons

Context

On July 7, 2022, Boris Johnson announced his resignation as British Prime Minister.  A series of scandals, leading to a revolt within Johnson's Conservative Party, hastened his departure well before the next scheduled parliamentary election in 2024.  Johnson's departure triggered a contest to determine who will lead the Conservative Party and, as the largest party in parliament, become the next occupant of Number 10 Downing Street.  

After multiple rounds of voting within the Party, the Tories have settled on their two final candidates: former Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak, and Foreign Secretary Liz Truss.

Resolution Criteria

This question will be resolved by an official Conservative Party press release or reporting from a major media outlet announcing the result of this contest.  That result is expected on September 5, 2022.

Note that if neither of these candidates becomes Prime Minister, the question will be voided.

Further Reading

Process for replacing Boris Johnson

Rishi Sunak - Campaign Website (Ready 4 Rishi)

Liz Truss - Campaign Website (Liz for Leader)



Resolution Notes

Liz Truss was declared the winner, with 81,326 votes to Rishi Sunak's 60,399

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Rishi Sunak 14%
Liz Truss 86%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 19
Average for questions older than 6 months: 20
Number of Forecasts 33
Average for questions older than 6 months: 46
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.136791
2.
-0.104857
3.
-0.09625
4.
-0.090717
5.
-0.087243

Consensus Trend

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