Will a ban procedure against the Alternative for Germany (AfD) be initiated by December 31, 2026?

Started Aug 14, 2025 01:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2027 05:01AM UTC
Challenges
Seasons

Context:
The Alternative for Germany (German: Alternative fϋr Deutschland or AfD) is Germany’s largest far-right party and currently serves as the main opposition party. Since its formation in 2013, the party has enjoyed increased popularity and electoral success in local, regional and European elections. In 2024, the party placed first in Germany’s European elections, followed by a second-place finish in Germany’s
parliamentary elections in February 2025.

The AfD is often described as an extremist party due to its anti-immigration and anti-Islam views. The party frequently employs xenophobic and racist rhetoric against marginalized groups and some party members have called for the “remigration” of immigrants. Moreover, a number of AfD members have faced legal consequences for Holocaust denialism. As a result, Germany’s Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution (BfV) in May 2025 classified the party as a “confirmed right-wing extremist” group. The AfD’s state parties in Thuringia and Saxony-Anhalt have already been labeled as
extremist groups. Its youth wing, Young Alternative, was also dissolved to avoid a ban after it too was classified as extremist.

Against this backdrop, the Social Democratic Party (SPD) decided to prepare for an AfD ban procedure at its party conference in June 2025. If there is sufficient evidence, the SPD will push for a ban application to the Federal Constitutional Court. However, a number of factors could prevent such an eventuality. The AfD remains popular among the German electorate; those who oppose the ban (including many members of the Christian Democratic Union – CDU) argue it would deepen polarization in Germany. Moreover, the process for banning a political party is long and complicated: it requires two thirds of Constitutional Court Judges to vote in favor of banning a party during the proceedings of the Constitutional Court. Nevertheless, the political controversy over the initiation of an AfD ban procedure will become a central issue in German domestic politics.

Resolution Criteria:
This question will resolve positively if a major news outlet reports that the Bundestag, the Bundesrat or the German Government has initiated a formal procedure to ban the AfD by December 31, 2026.

Further Reading:
Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours
Yes 47.18% -10.27%
No 52.82% +10.27%

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