Will the North Atlantic Council invite both Sweden and Finland to start NATO accession talks by June 30, 2022?
Started
Jun 24, 2022 04:00AM UTC
Closed Jun 29, 2022 05:30PM UTC
Closed Jun 29, 2022 05:30PM UTC
Challenges
Seasons
Context
On 18 May 2022, in response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, both Sweden and Finland submitted official letters of application to NATO. Shortly thereafter, Turkey blocked a vote to open talks immediately, leveraging on the fact that all 30 NATO members must consent before accession talks can commence. Turkish President Erdogan accuses the Nordic countries of hosting Kurdish militants affiliated with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK). The NATO summit in Madrid on June 29-30 is an opportunity (but not a deadline) for a decision on Sweden and Finland's membership bids.
Resolution Criteria
This question will be resolved via an official announcement on NATO website’s segment on NATO enlargement or reporting from a reputable major news source.
Further reading
Resolution Notes
Finland and Sweden were invited to join NATO on June 29, 2022.
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 97.71% | |
| No | 2.29% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 8 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 20 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 13 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 46 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| There are not enough forecasters in this question to generate an accuracy profile. |
