Context: 

In March 2025, Marine Le Pen and eight other members of her political party, the Rassemblement National (RN), were convicted of embezzling EU funds and improperly using the funds to pay non-European Parliament staff. The party was fined €2 million, slightly under half of the €4.1 million it was accused of embezzling.

Le Pen herself received a four-year prison sentence, with two years suspended and two years of house arrest. She was also given a €100,000 fine and banned from running for public office for 5 years. However, she was permitted to keep her seat in the National Assembly. Le Pen is currently appealing the conviction and contends that the decision was politically motivated. While the prison sentence and fine are delayed pending the appeal hearing, the ban remains in place. Nevertheless, she has stated that she will explore all possible avenues to ensure her eligibility in the 2027 presidential elections.  

Le Pen’s ban has upended an already chaotic 2027 race, in which she was widely considered to be a frontrunner. The RN leader’s appeal hearing is currently scheduled for summer 2026, leaving ample time for uncertainty to build. Jordan Bardella, Le Pen’s protégé and presumed successor, has stated that he will run in Le Pen’s place if she is unable to. Bardella has become increasingly popular and appears to have favorability ratings higher than Le Pen in several recent polls. This could further complicate Le Pen’s presidential ambitions even if the ban was lifted.

Resolution Criteria:
This question will resolve positively if a major news outlet reports that Marine Le Pen has been ruled eligible to compete in the 2027 French presidential election by December 31, 2026.

Further Reading:
Marine Le Pen, French Far-Right Leader, Banned from Running in 2027 Presidential Election | CNN
Paris Court Expects to Hear Le Pen Appeal in Time for 2027 Presidential Vote | France 24
What is Marine Le Pen Guilty of in National Rally Embezzlement Case? | The Guardian