In recent years, space has become an increasingly crucial theater in the geopolitical confrontation between the United States and the People’s Republic of China. Recognizing the immense strategic importance of space-based infrastructure, both nations have significantly expanded their presence in and beyond earth’s orbit. In turn, this has raised concerns about the increasing militarization of space.

While much of this competition has thus far been limited to low earth orbit, recent developments suggest that the Moon is emerging as a new focal point. Both the U.S. and China have invested in lunar exploration over the last decade, with the U.S. launching the Artemis program in 2017 and China completing a series of unmanned lunar missions since 2020 and initiating the International Lunar Research Station project. Both of these programs have been oriented around establishing a presence on the lunar surface or in cis-lunar space. 

Though these programs have been primarily scientific and commercial in nature, it is likely that national militaries will take on a greater role in the future. Observers have consistently noted the dual-use characteristics of China’s lunar activities, while the U.S. military has long played a role in American space

exploration. As the race to the moon intensifies, military involvement could result in a growing security dilemma.

This question will resolve positively if, according to major news reporting, either the United States or China establishes a military presence on the lunar surface or in lunar orbit. “Military presence,” in this question resolution, refers to a permanent installation or infrastructure used by the military or for directly military purposes.