Since its founding in 1949, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) has been dominated by the United States military. U.S. military expenditures have consistently dwarfed those of other member states, while U.S. weapons manufacturers have historically supplied the vast majority of the alliance’s arms.

For the 29 European NATO members, the U.S. is by far the largest source of arms and dual-use technologies. This reliance has only grown in recent years, as Russia’s 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine has placed massive pressure on the relatively small European arms industry. According to figures produced by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), the United States accounted for 64% of arms imports by European NATO member states, the highest figure in decades.

Nevertheless, recent events could reduce the U.S. share of European arms imports. U.S. President Donald Trump has long criticized European NATO members for their overreliance on the U.S. military, a sentiment that has only intensified since his return to office in 2025. In response, states such as Germany have vowed to increase domestic arms production, potentially signaling a shift away from U.S. imports.

This question will resolve positively if the SIPRI Arms Transfer Database shows that the percentage of arms imported by European NATO member states from the United States falls below 60% by December 31, 2025.