Will the United States deport 100,000 or more unauthorized immigrants between January 1 and March 31, 2025?

Started Mar 06, 2025 02:00PM UTC
Closed Apr 01, 2025 04:01AM UTC

Context:
Throughout his 2024 presidential campaign, Donald Trump frequently claimed that his administration would rapidly secure the United States’ Southwestern border and deport “millions” of undocumented immigrants. He contrasted this with the policies of then-president Joseph R. Biden, which he characterized as poorly organized and dangerously lax.

Soon after Trump’s inauguration, his administration embarked on a “show of force”, dispatching Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents to cities across the country and significantly increasing arrests of immigrants. These operations were accompanied by a flurry of press releases and
public statements emphasizing Trump’s role in the crackdowns.

Thus far, however, the Trump administration has fallen well short of its goals, particularly as it pertains to deportations. According to ICE statistics, deportations have actually dropped since Trump returned to office, with daily totals consistently lagging behind 2024 averages. During its first month (January 20 – February 20), the Trump administration reported 37,660 deportations, considerably less than the 2024 average of roughly 57,000 per month. In response, Trump has proposed a variety of measures, from simplifying the deportation process to deploying military regiments to assist in border enforcement. Nevertheless, legal and logistical hurdles could make significant increases difficult in the near-term.

Resolution Criteria:
This question will resolve positively if Immigration and Customs Enforcement reports that the United States has deported 100,000 or more unauthorized immigrants between January 1 and March 31, 2025. The question will be resolved via ICE data if available or major media sources.

Further Reading:
Resolution Notes

There were fewer than 65,000 deportations in the first 3 months of 2025.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 7%
No 93%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 33
Average for questions older than 6 months: 20
Number of Forecasts 43
Average for questions older than 6 months: 46
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.129954
3.
-0.115177
4.
-0.109954
5.
-0.109954

Consensus Trend

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