Will Boris Johnson serve as the UK Prime Minister through the next parliamentary election scheduled for May 2, 2024?
Closed Jul 07, 2022 12:00PM UTC
Context
On June 6, 2022, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson survived a no-confidence vote initiated by his own Conservative Party in response to revelations about the prime minister's violations of his government's COVID protocols. The final tally was 211-148, with 40% of Tory legislators supporting the end of Johnson's tenure. According to a May 2022 Ipsos poll, Johnson's approval rating stands at 29%. Parliamentary elections in the United Kingdom are due no later than May 2, 2024.
Resolution Criteria
This question will resolve as "no" if Johnson formally resigns, or is no longer to serve as Prime Minister for any reason prior to the United Kingdom's next election.
Further Reading
What happens next for PM Johnson?
Partygate: A timeline of the lockdown gatherings
Theresa May resigns over Brexit: What happened?
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 7.55% | |
| No | 92.45% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 15 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 20 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 22 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 46 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
