Will Moore's law continue in 2025?
Started
Apr 16, 2024 07:46PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2026 05:01AM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2026 05:01AM UTC
Context:
Moore's Law, according to Our World in Data, is "the observation that the number of transistors on computer chips doubles approximately every two years," and was first postulated by Gordon E. Moore, the co-founder of Intel, in 1965.
More recently, this trend has become increasingly important as the computational abilities of computer chips determines their ability to perform compute-heavy tasks like training new machine learning models.
Resolution Criteria:
This question will be resolved if, according to the Wikipedia list of microprocessor transistor counts, the maximum number of transistors on a single chip CPU in 2025 is 184,000,000,000 or greater.
Further Reading:
Question clarification
Issued on 04/26/24 05:50pm
Note that only transistor counts for single-chip CPUs will count for resolving this question - a GPU with a higher transistor count would not suffice to resolve the question positively. For example, the Apple M2 Ultra is disqualified as it is a dual-chip module and the AMD Instinct is disqualified as it is a multi-chip module. The transistor count threshold has been updated to reflect this clarification. (184,000,000,000 is double the Apple M3 Max count).
Note that only transistor counts for single-chip CPUs will count for resolving this question - a GPU with a higher transistor count would not suffice to resolve the question positively. For example, the Apple M2 Ultra is disqualified as it is a dual-chip module and the AMD Instinct is disqualified as it is a multi-chip module. The transistor count threshold has been updated to reflect this clarification. (184,000,000,000 is double the Apple M3 Max count).
Resolution Notes
Per Wikipedia, the maximum number of transistors on a single chip CPU in 2025 did not reach or exceed 184,000,000,000
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 2% | |
| No | 98% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 22 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 20 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 125 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 46 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | better than average |
