Will China blockade and/or invade Taiwan in the next six months?

Started Apr 16, 2024 07:38PM UTC
Forecast Window 6 months
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EU Tech  
Seasons

Context:
The leadership of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) in Beijing regards Taiwan, with its 23 million inhabitants, as part of the People's Republic of China. For the CCP, the self-governing island state is a breakaway Chinese province that must be reunited with mainland China. The clear goal of the CCP is therefore the reunification with the democratically governed island, if necessary, by military means.

Chinese President Xi Jinping sees himself as a leader with a historic mission. Reunification with Taiwan is part of this historic mission. And this reunification, as Chinese propaganda repeatedly emphasizes, is at the heart of the "the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation" ordered by Chinese President Xi since 2012.

Since the Russian attack on Ukraine, there has been growing concern that China, too, might proceed against Taiwan with an invasion or a naval blockade.

Resolution Criteria:
This question will resolve positively if AP, Reuters, or the Taipei Times report a Chinese invasion on the main island of Taiwan or a blockade of at least one of Taiwan's seaports or airports.

Further Reading:

Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours Change in last week
Yes 4.50% -0.70% +0.50%
No 95.50% +0.70% -0.50%

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