Will China blockade and/or invade Taiwan in the next six months?

Started Apr 16, 2024 07:38PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2025 05:01AM UTC
Tags
EU Tech  
Seasons

Context:
The leadership of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) in Beijing regards Taiwan, with its 23 million inhabitants, as part of the People's Republic of China. For the CCP, the self-governing island state is a breakaway Chinese province that must be reunited with mainland China. The clear goal of the CCP is therefore the reunification with the democratically governed island, if necessary, by military means.

Chinese President Xi Jinping sees himself as a leader with a historic mission. Reunification with Taiwan is part of this historic mission. And this reunification, as Chinese propaganda repeatedly emphasizes, is at the heart of the "the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation" ordered by Chinese President Xi since 2012.

Since the Russian attack on Ukraine, there has been growing concern that China, too, might proceed against Taiwan with an invasion or a naval blockade.

Resolution Criteria:
This question will resolve positively if AP, Reuters, or the Taipei Times report a Chinese invasion on the main island of Taiwan or a blockade of at least one of Taiwan's seaports or airports.

Further Reading:


Question clarification
Issued on 05/08/24 05:47pm
This includes not just the main island, but of all territory currently under Taiwanese sovereignty.
Resolution Notes

China did not blockade or invade Taiwan during the forecasting window.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 0%
No 100%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 22
Average for questions older than 6 months: 20
Number of Forecasts 72
Average for questions older than 6 months: 46
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Scored Periods

Scores for forecasts between Final Crowd Forecast
Apr 16, 2024 07:38PM UTC - May 17, 2024 05:01AM UTC 5%
May 17, 2024 05:01AM UTC - Jun 17, 2024 05:01AM UTC 3%
Jun 17, 2024 05:01AM UTC - Jul 17, 2024 05:01AM UTC 3%
Jul 17, 2024 05:01AM UTC - Aug 17, 2024 05:01AM UTC 2%
Aug 17, 2024 05:01AM UTC - Sep 17, 2024 05:01AM UTC 5%
Sep 17, 2024 05:01AM UTC - Oct 17, 2024 05:01AM UTC 4%
Oct 17, 2024 05:01AM UTC - Nov 17, 2024 05:01AM UTC 1%
Nov 17, 2024 05:01AM UTC - Dec 17, 2024 05:01AM UTC 0%
Dec 17, 2024 05:01AM UTC - Jan 01, 2025 05:01AM UTC 0%

Consensus Trend

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