Will Russian control of Ukrainian territory decrease in 2024?

Started Apr 16, 2024 06:42PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2025 05:01AM UTC
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Context:
Since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February of 2022, the war has settled into a relative stalemate. Russia has controlled 18% of Ukrainian territory since November 2022. Ukraine's planned 2024 counteroffensive presents an opportunity to reclaim lost territory, but the potential for reduced Western aid in the future also presents Ukraine with a risk of losing further ground.

Resolution Criteria:
This question will resolve if, according to the Brookings Ukraine Index, Russian control of Ukrainian territory is at 17% or less as of December 2024.

Further Reading:
Resolution Notes

Russian control of Ukrainian territory was at 18.5% as of December 2024.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 2%
No 98%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 16
Average for questions older than 6 months: 20
Number of Forecasts 51
Average for questions older than 6 months: 47
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.040917
2.
-0.037051
3.
-0.031356
4.
-0.019324
5.
-0.019224

Consensus Trend

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