Will Russian control of Ukrainian territory decrease in 2024?
Started
Apr 16, 2024 06:42PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2025 05:01AM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2025 05:01AM UTC
Context:
Since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February of 2022, the war has settled into a relative stalemate. Russia has controlled 18% of Ukrainian territory since November 2022. Ukraine's planned 2024 counteroffensive presents an opportunity to reclaim lost territory, but the potential for reduced Western aid in the future also presents Ukraine with a risk of losing further ground.
Resolution Criteria:
This question will resolve if, according to the Brookings Ukraine Index, Russian control of Ukrainian territory is at 17% or less as of December 2024.
Further Reading:
Resolution Notes
Russian control of Ukrainian territory was at 18.5% as of December 2024.
Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
---|---|---|
Yes | 2% | |
No | 98% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
Participation Level | |
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Number of Forecasters | 16 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 20 | |
Number of Forecasts | 51 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 47 |
Accuracy | |
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Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |