Since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February of 2022, the war has settled into a relative stalemate. Russia has controlled 18% of Ukrainian territory since November 2022. Ukraine's planned 2024 counteroffensive presents an opportunity to reclaim lost territory, but the potential for reduced Western aid in the future also presents Ukraine with a risk of losing further ground.

This question will resolve if, according to the Brookings Ukraine Index, Russian control of Ukrainian territory is at 17% or less as of December 2024.