Who will win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election?
Closed Jan 12, 2024 05:00PM UTC
Context
Presidential elections will be held in Taiwan on January 13, 2024, as well as elections to the parliament, the Legislative Yuan. The outcome of the two elections will have significance far beyond the region, particularly in the context of tense Sino-American relations.
The ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) has nominated Vice President Lai Ching-te as its presidential candidate, as the incumbent President Tsai Ing-wen (DPP), who has been elected to the office of president twice in a row since 2016, is not allowed to run for re-election.
The major opposition party Kuomintang (KMT) nominated New Taipei mayor, Hou Yu-ih, as the candidate to the presidential campaign. The Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) has nominated its leader, Ko Wen-je, the former Mayor of Taipei. Although the KMT and the TPP had initially agreed to field a joint ticket in November 2023, the two sides were unable to reach a final agreement and each announced their own presidential candidate.
Resolution Criteria
This question will be resolved using major news reporting announcing the winner of the Taiwanese presidential election in 2024.
Further Reading
Economist: Taiwan’s presidential election will be a three-way race after all
Lai Ching-te of the DPP party won the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election with 40.05% of the vote.
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Lai Ching-te (DPP) | 75% | |
| Hou Yu-ih (KMT) | 22% | |
| Ko Wen-je (TPP) | 3% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 11 |
| Average for questions in their first 6 months: 20 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 19 |
| Average for questions in their first 6 months: 39 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | better than average |
