Context
The race for the 2024 U.S. presidential election is already shaping up to be a close one. The incumbent president, Joe Biden, is facing a challenge from former president Donald Trump, and the two candidates are not that far from each other in the polls.  FiveThirtyEight's national polls have Trump at 39%, 5 percentage points ahead of Biden at 34%. Trump is also polling ahead in key swing states at 45% in Wisconsin and Georgia, while Biden trails behind a few percentage points at 41% and 37% respectively. 

Republican voters were facing a crowded presidential field for the primaries, including former Vice President Mike Pence, Florida’s governor Ron DeSantis and South Carolina’s former governor Nikki Haley. However, candidates have slowly dropped out of the presidential race as Trump continues to lead in the polls and win in key primary states. Ron DeSantis dropped out after the Iowa caucus, leaving only Nikki Haley in the race. 

Clouding Donald Trump's presidential race are a series of trials in Florida and New York over mishandling of classified documents during his time as president and hush-money cases. He is currently being charged with 91 felony counts across four criminal cases.