How many NATO member states will meet the 2% defense spending target by December 31, 2023?
Started
Jul 10, 2023 02:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2024 05:01AM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2024 05:01AM UTC
Challenges
Context
In 2006, NATO defense ministers initially agreed to spend 2% of gross domestic product (GDP) on defense. In response to the 2014 Russian annexation of Crimea, allied leaders formally pledged to reach the 2% guideline over the next decade. However, as of 2022, only seven member states of the 30-member bloc have reached this target: the United States, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Greece, and the United Kingdom. Consequently, the 2% defense spending guideline has remained a point of debate and controversy within the alliance. This debate has been especially contentious between the United States, the leading overall contributor to NATO, and larger western European member states that have failed to reach the minimum spending target. Now, as the war in Ukraine continues and the U.S. remains the largest contributor of defensive aid to Ukraine in total terms, the topic of “burden sharing” remains front and center among NATO allies. The 2023 NATO Summit in Vilnius represents yet another forum for member states to pledge commitments to meet the 2% defense spending guideline.
Resolution Criteria
The question will resolve based on data from the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s 2023 compendium of defense expenditures indicating how many NATO member states are spending at least 2% of GDP on defense.
Further Reading
This question has been voided by an administrator and is no longer active.
Hello All,
Due to newly available data from NATO, this question has been replaced by a new version with more relevant answers, which can be found here: https://www.rangeforecasting.org/questions/112-how-many-nato-member-states-will-meet-the-2-defense-spending-target-by-december-31-2023
Our apologies for the inconvenience!
Happy Forecasting,
The RANGE Team