Will French President Emmanuel Macron's party win a majority of seats in the National Assembly elections after the second round of voting on June 19, 2022?
Started
May 20, 2022 01:15PM UTC
Closed Jun 19, 2022 03:59AM UTC
Closed Jun 19, 2022 03:59AM UTC
Challenges
Seasons
Context
There are 577 Members of Parliament, also known as deputies, who make up the National Assembly. They are elected every five years by a two-round system (this year taking place June 12th and June 19th). 289 deputies are required in order to secure a majority. President Emmanuel Macron’s party, La Republique en Marche! currently has 308 deputies.
President Macron’s majority has been threatened by a recently-formed leftist coalition, the Nouvelle Union Populaire Ecologique et Sociales (NUPES). The coalition includes parties such as La France Insoumise, the Socialist Party, the French Communist Party, and a variety of other left-leaning parties in the French political system.
Resolution Criteria
This question will be resolved by the results of the parliamentary elections as reported by Le Monde after the second round concludes on June 19, 2022.
Further Reading
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 44.22% | |
| No | 55.78% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 9 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 20 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 12 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 46 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| There are not enough forecasters in this question to generate an accuracy profile. |
