Which party will win the most seats in Spain’s general elections on July 23?

Started Jun 28, 2023 03:32PM UTC
Closed Jul 23, 2023 04:01AM UTC
Challenges
Seasons

Context
Spain was scheduled to hold general elections in December of 2023, but following the result of regional and local elections on May 28, Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez called for the Spanish parliament to be dissolved and for a snap general election to take place on July 23. The regional and local elections results showed that Sánchez's ruling Socialist Party had sustained heavy losses, while center-right party Partido Popular made gains nationwide. Nearly all of the largest cities in Spain, including Sevilla, a stronghold for the Socialist Party, are in the hands of Partido Popular, which made a coalition deal with the far-right party VOX. Partido Popular will now govern 30 of the 50 Spanish provincial capitals for the next four years.

Partido Popular is currently leading in the polls at 34%, followed by Partido Socialista Obrero Espanol (PSOE) at 27% and VOX at 14%.

Resolution Criteria
This question will resolve when at least three major news sources, such as AP and Reuters, announce the result of the Spanish general elections on July 23.

Further Reading
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Partido Popular 78%
Partido Socialista Obrero Español 15%
Vox 3%
Sumar 2%
Other 2%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 12
Average for questions older than 6 months: 20
Number of Forecasts 12
Average for questions older than 6 months: 46
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.0414
2.
-0.0295
3.
-0.0275
4.
-0.009472
5.
-0.005

Consensus Trend

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