What will President Biden's approval rating be as of June 30?

Started Jun 01, 2023 02:00PM UTC
Closed Jun 30, 2023 04:00AM UTC
Challenges
Seasons

Context:

After beginning his term with approval ratings in the low 50s, President Biden's numbers began to decline in the summer of 2021 and are now in a similar range to where President Trump's were for much of his time in office.

Resolution Criteria:

The question will be resolved via FiveThirtyEight's weighted average of approval polls

Further Reading:

How FiveThirtyEight tracks presidential approval rates
How might Biden's approval rating affect the midterm elections?
Resolution Notes

President Biden's approval rating was 40% on June 30, 2023, according to FiveThirtyEight's weighted average of approval polls.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than 39% 12%
More than or equal to 39% but less than 40% 17%
More than or equal to 40% but less than 41% 24%
More than or equal to 41% but less than 42% 33%
More than or equal to 42% but less than 43% 13%
More than or equal to 43% 1%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 10
Average for questions older than 6 months: 20
Number of Forecasts 46
Average for questions older than 6 months: 46
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.341572
2.
-0.212434
3.
-0.179759
4.
-0.012248
5.
0.014662

Consensus Trend

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