Which party will win the most seats in the Polish parliamentary election on October 15, 2023?

Started Sep 07, 2023 02:29PM UTC
Closed Oct 15, 2023 04:00AM UTC
Challenges
Seasons

Context
Poland is scheduled to hold parliamentary elections on October 15, 2023 to elect members of the Sejm (lower house) and Senate. Law and Justice (PiS), President Andrzej Duda's party, has been the dominant political party in Poland since the 2015 elections. PiS is considered a right-wing populist and national-conservative party in Poland.

President Duda and his party have faced criticism in recent months after passing a new legislation on May 26 that creates a commission with the power to investigate alleged Russian interference in Polish politics between 2007-2022 and ban people from public office for ten years without judicial oversight. The PiS says the new law is an effort to "root out the Kremlin's agents in Poland" but the opposition is calling the law "Lex Tusk" claiming the legislation targets political rivals, particularly Donald Tusk, a former prime minister and European Council president currently leading the opposition.

Following Poland's decision, the European Parliament issued a press release outlining its concerns with the new electoral rules due to its threat to EU democratic values and passed a resolution calling on the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) to organize a full-scale election observation mission for the upcoming elections. The European Commission also launched a legal probe, known as an infringement procedure, but Polish authorities claimed legal action from Brussels would not derail their anti-Russia project. The EU has already made a move earlier this year to freeze a combined €138 billion in funding from both Poland and Hungary over concerns of democratic backsliding.

Resolution Criteria
This question will resolve when major news outlets announce which party in Poland has won the most seats following the parliamentary election on October 15, 2023.

Further Reading
Resolution Notes

The Law and Justice (PiS) party won the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary election, according to official results.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Law and Justice (PiS) 93%
Civic Coalition (KO) 7%
Confederation Freedom and Independence 0%
The Left 0%
Other 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 20
Average for questions older than 6 months: 20
Number of Forecasts 28
Average for questions older than 6 months: 45
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.025989
2.
-0.021837
3.
-0.0127
5.
-0.009824

Consensus Trend

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