Will more European Union countries follow Italy’s footsteps and ban ChatGPT by May 1, 2023?
Started
Apr 06, 2023 01:00PM UTC
Closed May 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC
Closed May 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC
Context
OpenAI launched ChatGPT in November of 2022 and it quickly became a trending topic worldwide. ChatGPT set a record for the fastest-growing consumer application in history, attracting 1 million users within a week and 100 million active users within two months.
ChatGPT offers many benefits and has the potential to revolutionize several industries, but policymakers are growing wary of the technology. Members of the U.S. Congress have raised concerns about ChatGPT’s potential for misuse and have held hearings to discuss the risks of artificial intelligence.
On March 31, the Italian Data Protection Authority issued a temporary ban on ChatGPT following a data breach of some users’ conversations and payment information. Italian regulators mentioned there is a lack of notice to users that their data is being collected by OpenAI and that the company lacks a legal basis for the collection and mass storage of the data. Since the data breach violates the EU’s General Data Protection Regulation, more EU countries may follow suit. On April 3, Reuters reported that privacy regulators in France, Ireland and Germany are in contact with their counterparts in Italy to find out more about the basis of the ban.
Resolution Criteria
The question will resolve positively if AP or Reuters reports that a second European Union member state has issued a ban on ChatGPT on or before May 1, 2023.
Further Reading
Question clarification
Issued on 04/13/23 03:31pm
We wanted to provide clarity regarding a potential situation in which the EU imposes a rule that doesn’t directly ban ChatGPT, but does cause OpenAI to stop operating ChatGPT in one or more EU countries or the EU as a whole. If this happens, and AP and Reuters do not report that ChatGPT has been “banned” as a result of this rule, it would not result in a positive question resolution. In other words, this question will only resolve "yes" if AP or Reuters report a ban of ChatGPT by an EU country or the EU as a whole, regardless of the specific circumstances that led to that ban.
We wanted to provide clarity regarding a potential situation in which the EU imposes a rule that doesn’t directly ban ChatGPT, but does cause OpenAI to stop operating ChatGPT in one or more EU countries or the EU as a whole. If this happens, and AP and Reuters do not report that ChatGPT has been “banned” as a result of this rule, it would not result in a positive question resolution. In other words, this question will only resolve "yes" if AP or Reuters report a ban of ChatGPT by an EU country or the EU as a whole, regardless of the specific circumstances that led to that ban.
Resolution Notes
Neither AP nor Reuters reported an additional EU member state banning ChatGPT
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 3.50% | |
| No | 96.50% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 20 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 20 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 36 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 45 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
