Will Senator Raphael Warnock be re-elected to the U.S. Senate in Georgia's runoff election on December 6, 2022?

Started Nov 10, 2022 02:36PM UTC
Closed Dec 06, 2022 05:00AM UTC
Challenges

Context
On November 8, 2022, Americans across all fifty states and territories cast their votes in the U.S. midterm elections to select officials at the federal, state and local levels. In the state of Georgia, neither candidate running for United States Senate received a majority of the vote and, thus, they did not meet the required threshold for an outright victory. Without securing 50 percent of the vote in the first round, Georgia law requires the top two candidates to advance to a runoff election to determine who will win the Senate seat.

On December 6, 2022, Democrat incumbent Raphael Warnock will again face Republican challenger Herschel Walker in this runoff election, which will be crucial as this election may determine whether Republicans or Democrats will control the Senate for the 118th Congress.

Resolution Criteria
This question will resolve when either candidate is announced as the projected winner by at least two of the following networks that make race calls: ABC News, CBS News, NBC News, CNN, Decision Desk HQ, Associated Press, Reuters, NY Times.

Further Reading
Resolution Notes

Sen. Warnock was re-elected to the U.S. Senate in Georgia's runoff election on December, 6 according to AP News and the New York Times

https://apnews.com/article/2022-midterm-elections-walker-warnock-runoff-3d4e4d1ab1760792454e1cbd618ce332

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/12/06/us/elections/results-georgia-us-senate-runoff.html

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 78.61%
No 21.39%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 26
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 12
Number of Forecasts 31
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 20
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.065
2.
-0.06
3.
-0.051
4.
-0.043
5.
-0.041

Consensus Trend

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