Will more than 200 election deniers be elected to office at the Congressional and State levels in the 2022 midterm elections?

Started Oct 28, 2022 05:43PM UTC
Closed Nov 09, 2022 05:00AM UTC
Challenges
Seasons

Context

During the 2020 US Presidential election campaign, President Donald Trump repeatedly cast doubt on the security and integrity of American elections without evidence to support that position.  In the aftermath of that election, Trump and many of his supporters refused to recognize the results of the election, and continued to challenge the outcome in the courts, in the media and in public appearances.  This effort to reverse the results of the 2020 election culminated in the attack on the United States Capitol on January 6, 2021, to prevent the peaceful transfer of power for the first time in American history.

In the run up to the 2022 midterm election, election deniers (i.e. those who refuse to accept the results of the 2020 election) have spread across the public and political classes in the United States.  In fact, a candidate's vocal denial of the 2020 results is often seen as a prerequisite for support in today's Republican Party.  Estimates from the Washington Post indicate that approximately 300 candidates "who have denied or questioned the outcome of the last presidential election" will be on the ballot on November 8th.

The ascension of election deniers into positions of power doesn't just have the potential to impact the results of future elections, but the state of American democracy going forward.

Resolution Criteria

This question will be positively resolved by a combination of the Washington Post's identification of election denier candidates with the election results announced by the Associated Press.

Further Reading

Democracy on the Ballot - Brookings Institution
Here Comes the Election Denier Storm
Why Many Republicans Believe the Big Lie

Resolution Notes

As of Dec 1, 178 candidates on the Washington Post's list of election deniers have won their elections. With only 3 contests yet to be decided, we know the total will be fewer than 200.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 38.80%
No 61.20%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 10
Average for questions older than 6 months: 20
Number of Forecasts 11
Average for questions older than 6 months: 45
Accuracy
There are not enough forecasters in this question to generate an accuracy profile.

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.207
3.
-0.076
4.
-0.028
5.
-0.028

Consensus Trend

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