Will the European Union reach its minimum gas storage target of 80% before or by November 1, 2022?

Started Aug 08, 2022 11:59PM UTC
Closed Aug 31, 2022 09:00PM UTC
Challenges
Seasons

Context

As a result of the war in Ukraine and reduced gas supply from Russia, European Union member states are being asked to reduce their consumption of natural gas by at least 15% between August 1, 2022 and March 31, 2023. EU countries will have to update their national emergency plans and report to the commission every two months on their progress. The EU also aims to refill gas storage to 80% of capacity by November 1, 2022 to provide buffer for peak demand during the winter months. Germany, as the country most affected by Russia's reduced gas flows, has set a higher goal of 95% full by November. European countries have been on track to meet this target thus far, but the high cost of filling up the storage and the financial burden this ultimately places on consumers is a significant concern.

Resolution Criteria

This question resolves positively if the Gas Infrastructure Europe site reports that EU gas storage is 80% full by November 1, 2022. 

Further Reading

‘Russia is blackmailing us’: EU asks member states to ration energy as Putin tightens grip on gas supplies

European gas storage on track to meet target but at a cost

Natural Gas in Europe: The Potential Impact of Disruptions to Supply

With Russia using energy as leverage, the quest in many parts of Europe is to shrink demand


Resolution Notes

The EU reached its minimum gas storage target of 80% on August 29th. Data confirming this was made available August 31st.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 84.70%
No 15.30%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 11
Average for questions older than 6 months: 20
Number of Forecasts 14
Average for questions older than 6 months: 46
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.052047
2.
-0.0475
3.
-0.026447
4.
-0.025
5.
-0.016711

Consensus Trend

Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username