Will there be an official U.S.-EU agreement on a new transatlantic data transfer agreement (Privacy Shield 2.0) signed by the end of 2022?

Started May 24, 2022 01:43PM UTC
Closed Dec 31, 2022 05:00AM UTC
Challenges
Seasons

Context

During President Biden’s visit to Brussels on March 25, 2022 he reached a political agreement with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen on a new transatlantic data privacy framework. The new framework aims to reestablish a legal mechanism for the transfer of personal data across the Atlantic.

The previous transatlantic data transfer agreement, the U.S.-EU Privacy Shield, was rendered invalid by the EU's Court of Justice in July of 2020,  as was its predecessor, the U.S.-EU Safe Harbor Framework, in 2015. 

Resolution Criteria

This question resolves as true if on or before December 31, 2022:

  • the White House and European Commission release a joint statement announcing the creation of legal documents on the new transatlantic data privacy framework to translate the political arrangement made by Biden and Von der Leyen in March 2022 into concrete policy.
  • at least two reputable news sources state that the U.S. and EU have signed a legal document to renew the transfer of data across the Atlantic.

Further Reading

FACT SHEET: United States and European Commission Announce Trans-Atlantic Data Privacy Framework

Infographic: From Privacy Shield to the Trans-Atlantic Data Privacy Framework

European Commission and United States Joint Statement on Trans-Atlantic Data Privacy Framework

Watch Now: Privacy Shield 2.0

Resolution Notes

The US and EU did not sign a new transatlantic data transfer agreement before the end of 2022.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 4.90%
No 95.10%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 13
Average for questions older than 6 months: 20
Number of Forecasts 29
Average for questions older than 6 months: 46
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters worse than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.003445
2.
-0.002312
3.
-0.002015
4.
-0.001575
5.
-0.001499

Consensus Trend

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