Will the EU and the US agree to a carbon-based sectoral arrangement on steel and aluminum trade by the end of 2024?

Started Jun 30, 2022 02:00PM UTC
Closing Dec 31, 2023 10:00PM UTC

Context
In October 2021 the EU and the US agreed to shelve their lingering steel and aluminum trade disputes through an innovative arrangement that could lead to the decarbonization of steel and aluminum, two of the most carbon-intensive industries. Both sides agreed to pause their related WTO disputes and the two parties announced they would negotiate by 2024 the first ever carbon-based arrangement to encourage low-carbon steel and aluminum production and overcapacity. The two parties intend to both advance their climate agendas while devising carbon-based means to restrict access from dirty steel producers and from steel-dumping non-market economies, such as China, which they mention explicitly.  

Resolution Criteria
This question will be resolved via the European Commission’s and the US Trade Representative’s announcement of a carbon-based sectoral arrangement on steel and aluminum trade by Dec 31 2024.

Further Reading
Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours Change in last week Change in last month
Yes 73.60% +0.00% +0.00% +0.00%
No 26.40% -0.00% -0.00% -0.00%

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