Will China seize one or more islands, islets or reefs in the South China Sea by December 31, 2025?
Closing Dec 31, 2025 05:00AM UTC
Context:
For decades, the South China Sea has been a hotly contested space. Driven by economic, political and military concerns, a diverse range of countries have competed to exert sovereignty over the sea and its abundant resources. These conflicts have only intensified in recent years, as the People’s Republic of China has vastly expanded its efforts to assert control over the region.
Since approximately 2012, China has engaged in a large-scale campaign to exert sovereignty over dozens of features in the South China Sea. These efforts have included seizures of natural islands, atolls and sand banks, the expansion of existing features through land reclamation and the wholesale construction of new islands. Much of this activity has centered on the Paracel and Spratly island chains, where Beijing maintains nearly 30 outposts, though Chinese forces have established presences on other features.
These activities have been widely condemned by neighboring states, including the Philippines, Taiwan, Vietnam, Brunei, Indonesia and Malaysia, who view them as impeding freedom of navigation and infringing on their own sovereignty. In 2016, the Permanent Court of Arbitration at The Hague ruled against China in a case brought by the Philippines, finding that Beijing’s activities were in violation of the UN Convention of the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). Nevertheless, China has continued to expand its presence in the South China Sea, seizing a sandbank in the Spratley Islands in April.
Resolution Criteria:
This question will resolve positively if the Center for Strategic and International Studies’ (CSIS) Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative (AMTI) reports that Chinese military or maritime militia forces have seized control over one ore more islands, islets or reefs in the South China Sea. For the purposes of this question, only features larger than 200m2 will be taken into account.
Further Reading:
Island Tracker Archive | Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative
South China Sea: A Visual Guide to the Key Shoals, Reefs and Islands | The Guardian
Beijing Seizes Tiny Sandbank in South China Sea | BBC
Territorial Disputes in the South China Sea | Council on Foreign Relations