Will the Labour Party win a majority of seats in the House of Commons in the United Kingdom’s parliamentary elections on July 4, 2024?

Started May 24, 2024 02:36PM UTC
Closed Jul 04, 2024 04:01AM UTC
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Context:
On May 22, 2024, British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak announced snap elections to be held on July 4, 2024 for the 650 seats in the House of Commons. To win an outright majority, a party would need to secure a minimum of 326 seats. The current composition of the House of Commons going into this election features the Conservative Party with 344 seats, Labour with 205 seats, Scottish National Party with 43 seats, Independents with 17 seats, Liberal Democrats with 15, and a variety of others with the remaining seats. According to the BBC poll tracker, as of May 23, 2024, Labour leads the way with 45%, followed by the Conservatives with 23%. The key issues in this election campaign will be the economy, healthcare and immigration.

Resolution Criteria:
This question will result positively if the BBC reports that the Labour Party has won at least 326 seats in the elections on July 4, 2024.

Further Reading:
Resolution Notes

The UK Labour Party won 412 seats, well clear of the 326 required for a majority.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 92%
No 8%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 15
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 20
Number of Forecasts 27
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 39
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.003968
2.
-0.003968
3.
-0.003968
4.
-0.002868
5.
-0.002166

Consensus Trend

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