The Russian invasion of Ukraine began with its annexation of Crimea, and incursion into the eastern Donbas region in 2014. In February 2022, a full-scale invasion of Ukraine began with ground, sea, and aerial attacks throughout the country, leading to Moscow controlling up to 54,000 square miles of Ukrainian territory. According to the Institute for the Study of War, as of May 7, 2024, Russia controlled 41,000 square miles of Ukraine. In April 2024, Russia began to intensify its attacks in the east, and have made advances in the north and northeast of Kharkiv in May 2024. Meanwhile, an additional transfer of military aid from western allies to Ukraine is forthcoming.

This question will resolve if, according to the Institute for the Study of War, Russian control of Ukrainian territory exceeds 45,000 square miles (~116,000 square kilometers) on July 31, 2025.

Ukraine Conflict Updates - Institute for the Study of War