Will the Alternative for Germany receive the most votes in the 2024 Saxony state election?

Started May 06, 2024 03:11PM UTC
Closed Sep 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
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Context
Since its establishment in 2013, the Alternative for Germany (AfD) has been strengthening its foothold in several states in eastern Germany, three of which are holding elections in 2024. In Saxony, the AfD has been steadily growing in popularity and increasing its share of the vote with each election. Following the AfD’s first round of state elections in 2014, the party received 159,611 votes, or 9.7% of the vote share. The AfD was still several percentage points behind the large established parties, the center-right CDU, the Left Party and center-left SPD, but it gained 14 seats in Saxony’s parliament. The result put the AfD on the map for not just voters in Saxony, but across Germany.

Over the next five years, the AfD continued to gain popularity across the country. Originally an anti-Euro party, the AfD switched to an anti-immigration platform during the peak of the European migration crisis in 2015, campaigning on values of German nationalism, conservatism, and Euroscepticism. In 2019, the AfD came second in the Saxony state elections reaching 27.5% of the vote, right behind the CDU with 32.1% of the vote. The AfD gained an additional 24 seats in this election, bringing their total to 38, while all the other parties, with the exception of the Greens, lost seats.

Despite, or in spite of, the AfD’s extremist far-right ideology, the party is the second most popular bloc in Germany. The AfD is expected to see another increase in votes in this year’s Saxony state elections, with the party leading in the polls as of January 2024 at 34.4%, surpassing the CDU's 31%.

Resolution Criteria
This question will resolve when the official election results are announced by the Saxony state government after September 1, 2024.

Further Reading

Question clarification
Issued on 05/31/24 05:23pm
There was an error in the original question. The question should read (and now does): Will the Alternative for Germany receive the most votes in the 2024 Saxony state election?
Resolution Notes

AfD placed second in the 2024 Saxony election, with 30.6% of the vote compared to the CDU's 31.9%.

Official Results

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 49%
No 51%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 11
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 20
Number of Forecasts 27
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 39
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.343066
2.
-0.282382
3.
-0.156281
4.
-0.114803
5.
-0.015127

Consensus Trend

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