Will an EU Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP) decision be reached through the process of Qualified Majority Voting (QMV) by December 31st, 2025?

Started Feb 21, 2024 03:19PM UTC
Closing Dec 31, 2025 05:00AM UTC
Challenges
Seasons

Context
Articles 21-46, Title V, of the Treaty of the European Union (TEU) establishes the processes of the Union’s Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP) and lays out the decision-making procedure. Decisions must be reached on the basis of unanimity – every Member State agreeing. Yet, unanimity is difficult to achieve due to fundamental policy differences among the EU-27. Over the last few years, especially since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, calls have been growing to introduce changes to this process.

The most prominent suggestion is to introduce the concept of Qualified Majority Voting (QMV) for decisions that fall under the CFSP. QMV does not require unanimity, only that two conditions are simultaneously met: (1) 55% of Member States – 15 out of 27 – vote in favor, and (2) that the proposal is supported by Member States representing at least 65% of the total EU population. Proponents of QMV point towards the need for the EU to be able to act swiftly and decisively. Critics of the idea fear that this would negatively impact smaller Member States and Member States might not be able to comply with the decision that is being agreed to via QMV in time.

QMV is already being used for numerous other policy fields in the Council. A possible way of approaching QMV for CSFP is through the “passerelle clause” (Article 31(3) TEU). This would change the unanimity requirement for CSFP decisions to QMV. The clause specifically excludes decisions with military implications and in the defense field, which must always be agreed to unanimously. The decision to use the passerelle clause to expand QMV in some CSFP areas would have to be unanimously agreed upon by the Council and in the national Parliaments – just like a treaty change.

Resolution Criteria
This question will resolve positively if the European Council announces it has formally reached a Common Foreign and Security Policy decision, which was agreed to through the process of Qualified Majority Voting on or before December 31, 2025. Announcements of intention or potential procedural steps towards QMV without explicit use do not count.

Further Reading
Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours Change in last week Change in last month
Yes 45.09% -2.12% +1.01% +1.01%
No 54.91% +2.12% -1.02% -1.02%

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