Who will win the 2024 Iowa Republican presidential caucus?

Started Dec 13, 2023 06:21PM UTC
Closed Jan 14, 2024 05:00PM UTC
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Seasons

Context
Unlike most states, where registered voters go to a designated polling location and cast a ballot during a presidential primary, the state of Iowa holds a local caucus meeting to discuss and vote on the candidates. Although other states in the U.S. hold caucuses, the Iowa caucus is famous for being the first major contest of the U.S. presidential primary/caucus season and the winner may become the next president, though historical data shows mixed results and variation by party. At the very least, the Iowa caucus can help clarify the top candidates for a party. 

The 2024 Iowa presidential caucuses are scheduled for January 15, 2024.

Resolution Criteria
This question will be resolved using major news reporting announcing the winner of the highest number of delegates from the 2024 Iowa Republican caucus.

Further Reading
Resolution Notes

Donald Trump won de Iowa Republican caucus by 56,260 votes (51% of the vote share). Ron DeSantis came in second with 21.2% and Nikki Haley third with 19.1%

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Donald Trump 92%
Ron DeSantis 4%
Nikki Haley 4%
Vivek Ramaswamy 0%
Other 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 18
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 20
Number of Forecasts 24
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 39
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.003581
2.
-0.003581
3.
-0.002981
4.
-0.00195
5.
-0.000225

Consensus Trend

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