Will Lula da Silva complete his current term as President of Brazil?

Started Jul 12, 2023 04:00AM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2027 05:01AM UTC
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Context
Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva was first elected as President of Brazil in 2003, and served until 2010. During his initial tenure in office, he was lauded for reducing poverty through programs such as Bolsa Familia, a direct cash transfer incentive for those in need, and for improving infrastructure throughout the country. His legacy, however, was marred by a corruption scandal that embroiled a wide swath of Brazilian politicians, and ultimately landed Lula in prison in 2017. In January 2021, Brazil’s Supreme Court annulled Lula’s conviction allowing him to run for President in 2022. Lula handily defeated the incumbent Jair Bolsonaro to return to office in January 2023.

Since Lula’s departure, the track record for incumbents has been poor. His successor, Dilma Rouseff, was impeached and removed from office. Next in line, Michel Temer, became the first president in Brazil to have charges brought against him while in office, and ultimately was defeated and subsequently arrested. Jair Bolsonaro allegedly incited a coup attempt after losing the 2023 election, and remains mired in the legal consequences of that action.

As of June 17, 2023, Lula’s approval rating was characterized as “stable” at 37%.

Resolution Criteria
This question will result positively if Lula Da Silva remains president of Brazil through the end of his current term ending on December 31, 2026.

Further Reading
Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours Change in last week Change in last month
Yes 81.00% 0% 0% 0%
No 19.00% 0% 0% 0%

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